Arkansas Winter Outlook 2017-18

Arkansas Winter Outlook 2017-18

Hello everybody and welcome to Will’s Arkansas Weather Report!  This is a new page where I will post my thoughts and opinions on the weather.  Lets’s get right down to business.  When it comes to temperatures, it all depends on the setup on the climate.  One of these big setups is the Arctic Oscillation (also known as the AO).  The Actic Oscillation has two phases, a positive phase and a negative phase.  The Arctic Oscillation is basically the area of very cold air that sits around the Arctic Circle.

As you can see, when the Arctic Oscillation is positive, the polar circulation that holds all of the cold air is stronger, resulting in warmer temperatures for the United States and colder temperatures stay farther to the north.  When the AO is negative, it means there is an area of high pressure around the North Pole.  As a result, the colder Arctic air will be forced to the south resulting in much cooler air, possibly resulting to snow.

This winter, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) is forecasting slightly warmer than average conditions and around average precipitation, but don’t worry snow lovers, this doesn’t mean no snow.  There has been multiple times where the monthly temperature was above average but there were a few cold shots resulting in snow.

In my opinion, this year will be around average temperature.  There is the possibility of cold shots (meaning the possibility of snow) and there will probably be warm ups too.  As far as moisture goes, there is a significant chance for below average precipitation, and cold air won’t get us any snow without any moisture.  I believe there is a pretty good chance for snow too, we just need to get some moisture.

REMEMBER, this is just an outlook and not a forecast so take this for a grain of salt because many things can change.

Thanks for reading and have a great day.

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2 thoughts on “Arkansas Winter Outlook 2017-18

  1. Great first post Will! I love your explanation of the Arctic Oscillation – we always root for a negative phase here in the Pacific Northwest so the polar vortex can deliver a good arctic blast and hopefully a chance of snow.

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